Kiggans Announces In VA02; Youngkin Underwhelms In Campaign Finance Report
Youngkin's haul may not be enough to execute his campaign plan while progressive Dems begin flirting with 3rd party options.
Good news coming out of Virginia’s 2nd District as State Senator Jen Kiggans is throwing her hat into the race to run against Democrat Elaine Luria (D-VA) in Virginia Beach.
The video is worth watching. Did you know that Kiggans’ resume includes:
Navy helicopter pilot
Owns an actual minivan
Mother of four
Nurse practitioner
Member of the Virginia State Senate
Being able to run and talk as if most of us were sitting in a chair
Doesn’t shy away from a fight
Either way, check this out.
BACK OF THE ENVELOPE: Youngkin’s $7.5mil Haul Might Not Be Enough
Given the big talk Glenn Youngkin’s team has done about their ability to self-fund, one has to be a bit surprised at their recent announcement raising only $7.5 million — with few details as to where the money is coming from.
In contrast, Pete Snyder had announced that he has pulled in a healthy $6.4 million by the 31 March filing deadline. Kirk Cox has yet to announce his numbers.
Wait — $6.4 million is less than $7.5 million. So why is Youngkin’s haul so disappointing? What is this guy trying to say?!
Shill!
Paid hack!
RINO!
WINO!
QAnon!
Redskins fan!
RIGHT WING LUNATIC!
WHAT DOES THIS COLUMN KNOW ABOUT HILLARY’S E-MAILS?!
Hold your horses.
Ostensibly, there is only so much you can spend in a convention format. Different plans require different resources to execute. Primaries are more expensive than conventions. Tracking down new voters is more expensive than motivating base voters, and the more complicated the nomination method is, the harder it becomes to get new voters where you need them to be — which is why conventions with far reduced turnout tend to be more expensive per voter than primaries.
Which makes Youngkin’s unstated goal to bring 30,000 new convention delegates to the unassembled RPV State Convention on 08 May a mightily expensive proposition.
That is going to require television.
Gobs of it.
2,000 points of television ads in the Washington D.C. market can run into the millions of dollars. Virginia has 10 designated marketing areas (DMAs) of which five really cannot be ignored. Not all of them are as expensive as Washington, but if you do some rough back-of-the-envelope math, if it costs $1.5 mil to run 2,000 points in the DC market, and you have four more markets to go?
Meanwhile, Snyder is working with and among conventioneers familiar with both party and process. Cox enjoys this advantage as well. Much like Youngkin, Chase is struggling to bring her outsiders into the tent — and in many ways, faces the same uphill logistical hurdle.
One can see the problem (and the dynamic) for what it is, and it should be obvious enough to even amateur politicos that one path to victory is more efficient than the other.
In effect, $7.5 million may be a tidy sum, but executing an expensive Youngkin campaign plan is more rodomontade than realism. Consider that 12,000 Republicans participated in the 2013 RPV State Convention; the prospect of chasing, activating, motivating, and then pushing 30,000 new Republican conventioneers and activists to storm the unassembled convention in a process that has been hammered mercilessly as “corrupt” for four long months? Objectively, that’s going to be a tough sell.
Then there are the other candidates.
Former Speaker Kirk Cox (R-Colonial Heights) — running neck and neck with Snyder at present — has yet to announce his campaign finance results, which should prove interesting as a barometer of where the race actually stands. State Senator Amanda Chase (I-Chesterfield) has been notably absent from the race — the press isn’t covering her, the fundraising appeals have been zero, and her ability to reach her own public curtailed mightily as Facebook continues to uphold their ban.
Of course, in the statement to The Daily Caller, Youngkin seems to be priming himself for a sharp elbow directed not just against Snyder, but against Cox:
“I can’t wait to build on our incredible momentum, unite our party, and take on the career politicians who have failed Virginians for too long. Virginia families and workers deserve better, and we’re going to deliver real results and a government that works for them.”
Ouch.
That’s going to be news to House and Senate Republicans.
The short version here is that Snyder — running inside the party apparatus and among the party faithful — might very well be enjoying the luxury of having overfunded his campaign plan. Meanwhile, Cox is still grinding forward at pace; Chase continues to grind her own gears.
By contrast, Youngkin has outpriced his own narrative. How does one spend four months with staff decrying a process as corrupt only to pivot and attempt to motivate 30,000 people to come to a convention billed as so thoroughly dishonest the votes might not count?
Tough box.
Don’t Donate to the National Police Support Fund; Support Virginia LEOs Instead
If you are getting phone solicitations from a group calling themselves the National Police Support Fund, read this before you consider donating.
I’m not donating to them.
Consider supporting your local Fraternal Order of Police, the Virginia Sheriffs’ Association, or the Virginia State Police Association when they call.
Just a friendly public service announcement from your humble editorial writer who was called just moments ago. Anathema sit.
UNDERREPORTED: Virginia Progressives Seethe As Byrd Machine Dems Rally To Their Flag
Meanwhile on the left, prospects of a third-party candidate are mounting against Terry McAuliffe, who seems to be single-handedly angering the progressive wing of his own party.
In private conversations with progressive friends, the anger is more than just palpable. McAuliffe and Northam are clearly working in concert at this stage of the game; the Byrd Machine is doing its work. Progressives who rail against the institutions as racist are discovering that they share a bit in common with conservatives who find these same institutions as prejudiced against those who share values that differ from the institutions themselves.
Who holds these institutions again? The Democratic Party.
This isn’t to say that we are reaching some sort of rough-hewn conservative-progressive alliance per se. But it is to note — and this is all that this is, a notation — that conservatives and progressives share a common enemy and a common refrain, namely that our institutions aren’t working for the rest of us.
Of course, should there not be a progressive candidate in the wings, there is an opportunity for Republicans to make the case that Democratic policies simply aren’t working for minorities anymore (and haven’t for decades). After all, the same folks who crafted Massive Resistance didn’t just magically become liberals overnight — they were simply wedded to the machinery of government and redirected their aim (but not their paternalism).
Signs and wonders.
Shaun Kenney is the editor of The Republican Standard, former chairman of the Board of Supervisors for Fluvanna County, and a former executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia.