Miyares Up $1.6M in Q3 Fundraising; US House Speaker Race Entirely Up for Grabs
Also -- Joe Biden's approval ratings are crushing Virginia Dems right now, and everyone agrees that banning books is a super dumb idea.
First things first — the US House Speaker’s race.
Look — every time I try to write about the House Speaker race, it changes. Scalise then Jordan no wait McHenry hold on is Boehner coming back no wait back to Jordan aww heck Trump possibly Scalise okay no back to Jordan and Jordan again…
If you have a guess, it’s as good as anyone else’s guess at this rate. The only date we need to watch for is 17 November, when the present CR runs out. Until then, Mitch McConnell going to have to work some sort of parliamentary magic in order to secure funding in support of both Israel and Ukraine.
Good luck, fellas.
Can Virginia Dems Find the Moral Constitution to Condemn Hamas and Support Israel (Please)?
Second thing come second — Virginia Dems are really fumbling the ball on the response to Hamas.
To be clear, I don’t think anyone supports Hamas. At least, I hope not.
Yet the #FreePalestine protests on college campuses and in several downtown areas did not go unnoticed — this before Israel had even reacted to the Gaza terrorist attacks. That sort of timing betrays intentions to a degree, and while our better natures might hope that there is a disassociation between support for Palestinian Arabs and Hamas terrorists, one gets the idea that the euphemism is more tightly linked than anyone cares to admit.
In the meantime, the President is set to address the nation at 8pm EST. Upwards of 5,000 Marines and countless other support staff are being mobilized to assist the Israelis in Gaza and potentially elsewhere if things go sideways. Yet one does suspect that more progressive elements are more than a bit miffed at the idea that their liberal counterparts are supporting Israel right to respond to their own version of September 11th.
Let’s just hope the Israelis learn from our lessons.
Biden Approval Ratings Stagnant at 40%
Third things third? Let’s gather around and talk about how terrible President Joe Biden’s approval ratings are — and how they are absolutely crushing Virginia Democrats in key races right now:
That’s 40% approval ratings, folks. If they go up to 45%? The first Tuesday in November is going to be a tough one for Republicans. If they go below 40%? Democrats are in for a world of hurt, with the General Assembly likely going 22 seats in our favor in the Virginia Senate and as high as 55 seats in the House of Delegates.
While I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on it, the most probable outcome is still stellar for Virginia Republicans — with a 21-seat majority in the State Senate and a 53-seat majority in the House of Delegates.
With regards to Biden’s favorable rating, there is simply no good news out there for the White House. Numbers to watch? Among black voters, Biden is 58/42. Among Hispanic voters, Biden is upside down 38/62. Among moderates? 44/56.
…and among independents? 33/67.
There’s being upside down in polling. Then there is face down in the bathtub with the poll numbers holding your head underwater polling.
Miyares Opens Wide Lead in Q3 Campaign Finance Report
Good news for Republicans as Attorney General Jason Miyares opens up a massive lead in fundraising looking towards the 2025 gubernatorial elections, raising $267,686 this quarter with an astounding $1.6M cash on hand.
Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears raised $92,408 with a cash-on-hand balance of $761,432 — a total which has a very broad array of support from grassroot Republican supporters.
Meanwhile on the left, former Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn raised a steady $96,932 with $621,524 in the bank account, and Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney resting on $339,947 after having raised a modest $9,763.
Of course, the 800lb gorilla in the room is none other than Rep. Abigail Spanberger whose SPA(O?)N PAC — laaaaaaame — has a whopping $1.4M on hand after raising $1.7M the previous quarter.
Spanberger, who is not running for re-election in 2024, is rumored to be gearing up for a 2025 bid for governor. While Filler-Corn and Stoney are thought to be pursuing options, there remains one other candidate on the left — Tom Perriello — where you have to wonder how much different Virginia would have been if Perriello and not Northam had nabbed the Democratic nod in 2017. . .
On the Virginia GOP side of the fence, the anticipation of a family feud between Miyares and Sears is not relished by either side — but anticipated. Should the Virginia Senate go 20-20 — or should Youngkin vacate the Governor’s Mansion in 2024 — things could get interesting quickly.
Time will tell.
CNU Wason Center: Youngkin 55%, Biden 41%, 60% Dissatisfied with Public Education; 84% Oppose Book Banning
The CNU Judy Wason Ford Center issued their last poll of the political season with numbers showing that Republicans messaging is matching the mood of the electorate, with economy and inflation the top issue at 27% and abortion lagging behind at 17%. Republicans and independents both put the economy on top.
Numbers on public education mirror public sentiment about Congress — everyone hates Congress but loves their congressman. Likewise, 60% of Virginians are openly dissatisfied with the state of public education but show high marks for their local public schools at 58% approval ratings. Few Virginians are “very satisfied” with the state of public education, with all political affiliations polling in the single digits.
Book banning — the craze which seems to have swept local school boards — is proving broadly unpopular, with 84% of Virginians openly opposing the effort and 73% of Virginians defending the principle that public libraries should offer a wide diversity of books even if they are offensive to some.
When Republicans are asked, a whopping 72% object — demonstrating the issue to be a sure-fire loser.
For some strange reason, Virginia Democrats have shied away from running on this issue, preferring to do the bidding of the abortion industry and campaign atop a pile of dead babies rather than banned books.
Perhaps some of the more graphic images were indefensible? Probably so — yet given the numbers, it is clear that Republicans did well to defend the open marketplace of ideas rather than delve into the crusade against smut.
One last thing? My latest op-ed for the Fredericksburg Advance detailing how the conservative school board in Spotsylvania is being given a dirty shake by the institutionalists working for the system itself.
Give it a read and feel free to share. This is a conversation that is not limited to one locality, and the wiser we get to the game the easier it is going to be to make sure we have an education system which is intellectually diverse — and not merely monolithic.
It’s for the children, after all.
Shaun Kenney is the editor of The Republican Standard, former chairman of the Board of Supervisors for Fluvanna County, and a former executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia.