PredictIt: Snyder 58, Youngkin 29, Cox 12?
For the folks who put their money where their mouth is? Snyder is the overwhelming favorite despite an early Cox lead.
The results of the TRS Republican gubernatorial poll are in and folks are already wargaming it out.
Naturally, it’s an online poll of delegates and faithful TRS readers, so if you liked it? It’s is Gospel Truth (TM) and if you don’t like it? Totally suspect.
Of course, if you’re the sort that likes to see folks put their money where their mouth is? Pete Snyder is the overwhelming favorite over Glenn Youngkin on PredictIt, with Kirk Cox in a distant third.
Or at least, this is how it was until 16 April when someone poured a ton of cash on Snyder and Youngkin in a mutual contest of wills.
Either way, feel free to place your bets accordingly and with respect to the laws. These numbers are incredibly volatile and easily manipulated for a few hundred bucks.
You should put as much faith in this as you put into online polls. Case in point? By the time I refreshed the PredictIt page? Here are the new numbers:
Wild.
Then there is the latest from Trafalgar Group with offers the bizarre suggesting that Youngkin is leading the pack with an astounding 37.7% of the vote — effectively flipping Cox and Youngkin numbers.
So is it true? Not so fast according to Quentin Kidd with the CNU Wason Center:
Want more useless information? Of course you do (you nerd).
One of the more useful metrics of how a voting population is leaning? Google Trends… which tends to get it right more than you’d think. Result there?
Youngkin 26, Chase 25, Snyder 17, Cox 9 .
One last time with PredictIt?
Which still puts Snyder ahead of the competition. But be honest — this isn’t being driven by bookies. It’s being driven by politicos who can swing this five points with $100 and hope to persuade others.
The real problem is more direct.
It’s a convention.
No one — and I mean no one — knows the actual outcome of this race. But there are hunches and there are informed thoughts on the matter. Prognosticators and pundits can take their guesses accordingly, but let’s not joke ourselves — consultants have a lot of money to make massaging the public into place at the last minute.
Just remember. The key to winning a convention is to be everyone’s #2. To make the case while not angering the rest of the Republican faithful.
The good news is that most Republicans are ready for May 9th. I sure am!
Shaun Kenney is the editor of The Republican Standard, former chairman of the Board of Supervisors for Fluvanna County, and a former executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia.