S01E01: The New Dominion Podcast + Trump +7 Over Biden in Latest Poll
Turns out, engaging the left on the battlefield of ideas doesn't have to be a Hobbesian exchange after all. Our new joint project with F2S's Marty Davis.
Longtime TRS readers will remember the heady days of conservative podcasting over with our content partners at Bearing Drift and Virginia Politics on Demand. Our latest venture at TRS is a joint project with Marty Davis — formerly an editor with the Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star and presently with a new project entitled F2S.
The New Dominion Podcast will be a back-and-forth between the two of us — one on the left, myself on the right — on the questions of the day. Our inaugural podcast touches on why our politics is broken, getting to “the why behind the why” on political issues, Governor Youngkin’s moves on DEI requirements, and Marty’s heartfelt appreciation for the US Marine Corps.
The New Dominion Podcast will be published once a week via Spotify. We hope you enjoy an approach that disagrees without being disagreeable — and by all means subscribe if podcasting is your thing. Next week’s guest should be interesting…
WaPo/ABC: Trump 49/42 Over Biden in Shock Poll
Meanwhile in an America near you, get ready for a tidal wave of polls looking to put this one underwater.
Trump opening up with a +7 lead against Biden is a four point bump from the previous poll in January, where Trump led the embattled occupant of the White House by +4.
The crosstabs only make things worse for the Democrats overall:
In short, the Biden White House is in deep, serious, abiding trouble.
To make matters worse, the Democratic strategy of hinging their electoral hopes on abortion on demand are hurting them badly among pro-life Democrats — voters who identify as moderate but disagree with the extremely broad provisions too many Democratic candidates are being pushed to run on by their own base.
One number that should bother Democrats a great deal?
The percentage of Hispanic Catholic and black Protestant voters who identify as both pro-life and Democratic: 29% and 21% respectively.
Dems 2024 Problem: Hardcore Abortion, Culture Wars Messaging Means Ditching Minority Voters
With the Democrats clinging to abortion as their brass ring against any sort of Republican return to power, the problem for Democrats will remain two-fold.
First and foremost, it’s white Democrats who embrace abortion with a fanaticism that sounds good inside the cubicles of the DNC. So long as the question isn’t abortion-up-to-birth, abortion polls well for Democrats — so long as they never answer the question as to what limits they would actually accept.
Yet second and perhaps more interesting, it is Hispanic and black communities who are disproportionately made to feel the impact of abortion policy. Not only are most abortion centers are located in minority communities, according to the Guttmacher Institute nearly 2 out of every 3 abortions are minority babies.
This should not shock a soul. Abortion advocates have never been shy about what they intend and who their targets are.
After all, using abortion as a tool to keep minority populations down is precisely why former Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg believed abortion was necessary:
"Frankly, I had thought that at the time Roe v. Wade was decided, there was concern about population growth and particularly in populations we don't want too many of."
Yes — she actually said this.
Yet in Virginia, where Republicans nominated The Most Diverse Ticket in Virginia History (TM), the coalition is no longer “minority outreach” — AG Miyares and LTG Sears are actually leading and defining the Virginia GOP in a way that cannot be found in the party of Jim Webb, Ralph Northam, and Mark Herring. Defending abortion on demand may play well to a rabid Democratic base, but it sounds grisly and terribly unfeeling to most Virginians.
A Republican Tidal Wave in 2023?
As the poll numbers worsen for Biden and for Virginia Democrats, minority pro-life Democrats could very well look at their own values and the economy and find themselves with a choice of their own.
As former Rep. Jack Kemp used to say to minority communities, if the status quo isn’t working for you, give Republicans a try — and if we don’t do what we say we are going to do, throw us out.
Should Democrats confuse the moral high ground with a pile of dead babies, they should expect a drubbing at the polls in November. Meanwhile, black and Hispanic moderates could be looking for a new home that is pro-life, pro-small business, and pro-opportunity — one that can reject craziness while exhibiting that all-too-rare quality of empathy.
Virginia Republicans would be well advised to welcome them — and their leadership — with open arms.
The more increasingly shrill Virginia Democrats become, the greater the need for calm Republican leadership that will keep its promises in November. Such an approach would let the Democrats hoist themselves on their own petard while allowing the national narrative to do the rest.
Might not be the most exciting 2023 ever, but it most certainly will be pivotal.
Shaun Kenney is the editor of The Republican Standard, former chairman of the Board of Supervisors for Fluvanna County, and a former executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia.