TRS POLL: Field Narrows as Cox Maintains Lead; Youngkin, Snyder Tied
TRS POLL: Field Narrows as Cox Maintains Lead; Youngkin, Snyder Tied
Virginia Republicans are slated to vote in the RPV Convention on Saturday, May 8th
Have you had enough text messages and spam yet?
I get it. We are all tired of it.
The good news is that after Saturday? We get to fight against Democrats instead. Which frankly is a lot more fun and high-contrast than the nit-picky fights we see today.
GOVERNOR: Cox 26, Youngkin 24, Snyder 23, Chase 18
The surprising late endorsement from Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has pushed Glenn Youngkin’s numbers up 5 points from the previous week’s poll. Meanwhile, Amanda Chase is starting to claw back into the contest with a 7 point bump as the DGA continues to talk up her frontrunner (sic) status.
Meanwhile, former Speaker Kirk Cox (R-Colonial Heights) continues to remain in the lead, with Disruptor CEO Pete Snyder still performing well among second place voters — an especially among more conservative voters.
The gubernatorial nod is going to come down to whichever campaign can turn out the troops — nothing else. Youngkin is boasting of 18K prefiles; Snyder has 17K. Cox’s campaign team remains confident that his no-negative-campaigning approach will produce a solid result as the second place votes come in. Meanwhile, Chase is counting on her invisible army.
Plenty of question marks heading into tomorrow. Yet there’s one that has thrown many (including your humble editor) for a loop and a half.
Corey Stewart Endorses Glenn Youngkin for Governor?! 👌
I have to admit that I nearly choked on my dinner when I saw this last night.
Politics creates strange bedfellows. Sometimes it creates really strange bedfellows.
This one doesn’t ship.
After a week of campaigning with Ted Cruz that has clearly boosted Youngkin’s fortunes and profile, the question now becomes whether Corey Stewart’s endorsement hurts or helps Youngkin among his more moderate base as we head into Saturday — because this one is just plain odd.
At present, Youngkin has neither rejected nor recognized the Stewart endorsement via press release. Youngkin staff is privately telling people that the endorsement was not solicited, but neither is it being refused. Ergo, someone is looking for the votes a Stewart endorsement can provide at the 11th hour.
Either way, I’ll be glad when this is all over tomorrow and we can get back to the work of going after Democrats for a change.
LG: Sears Establishes Slight Edge Over Hugo, Davis in Three Way Split
Former Delegate Winsome Sears (R-Norfolk) is emerging with a slight lead over her erstwhile rivals. Sears leads with 27% of the vote, while former Delegate Tim Hugo (R-Fairfax) holds firm at 26% and Delegate Glenn Davis (R-Virginia Beach) is at a very close third at 23%.
So who is the kingmaker? One might want to start looking at Puneet Ahluwalia at 10%.
Should Puneet finish in fourth, 35% of his votes will go to Sears. Davis gets 18% of that total, while Hugo comes up with 23%. Should that happen? 43% of Davis’ support breaks for Hugo, while 18% breaks for Sears.
Of course, none of this is in stone. Just trendlines.
AG: Miyares 42, Smith 26, Haley 20
Delegate Jason Miyares (R-Virginia Beach) still holds a commanding lead in first and second place votes in the Republican AG nomination contest. Chuck Smith has finally overtaken Supervisor Leslie Haley (R-Chesterfield) for the second place nod, but while there is movement, Miyares doesn’t seem to be losing any of his luster.
As you will note here, Haley continues to be a third-choice favorite. Meanwhile, Jack White — a tremendous candidate — is still fighting the old name identification trap (i.e. just not enough time to introduce himself to the electorate).
Tomorrow this is all over and we can get back to the business at hand. For all of our supposed differences, our Republican field is head-and-shoulders above the Democratic field without question or compromise. We should be thankful to have such leadership in our ranks.
Most of all, thank you for being a part of the solution and plowing through all the direct mail and text messages.
Let’s keep hammering.
Shaun Kenney is the editor of The Republican Standard, former chairman of the Board of Supervisors for Fluvanna County, and a former executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia.